Summary by Bridget Stuart

This week, we heard from Dr. Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Dr Birol’s spoke on the impact of COVID on the energy sector, and the Green Recovery of the future.
 
The global pandemic has led to the biggest shock to the energy industry since WWII, causing a decline more than 7 times larger than the 2008 financial crash. Fortunately, it is fossil fuels which have been hit the hardest, and renewable energies, such as wind or solar have actually proven to be relatively ‘COVID immune’. There has also been a 7% drop in emissions, thanks to the pandemic—the deepest decline in decades. However, there is a real risk that emissions will rebound with the economy and this decline will only be temporary.
 
This means that the next 3 years will be a ‘make or break’ period in determining whether countries will meet their 2050 net-zero goals. Recovery policies and economic packages centring on renewables will be essential in facilitating this. These policies must be aimed at maximising energy efficiency, improving pre-existing energy grids, and developing innovative technologies.
 
The questions considered green stimulus packages, the geopolitics of energy, COP26, OPEC countries, individual action and policy-making in emerging economies.

• It is great that countries are announcing ambitious green stimulus packages, but they need to follow through and provide sufficient funding.
• The new US administration is a beacon of hope. The re-joining of the US to the Paris Agreement will create great political momentum. The conflict between the US and China is also more likely to be resolved.
• The US must invest time, money and effort in R&D projects, specifically those which focus on electricity.
• Dr Birol is very optimistic about COP26 in Glasgow next year and has expectations it will over-shadow Paris 2015, in terms of the advances that are made.
• There is a risk of geopolitical tensions around the raw materials required for renewable development, which are only concentrated in a small number of countries. The IEA is working on this matter.
• The value of oil is in rapid decline, a problem for OPEC countries which have economies closely tied to the fortunes of oil and gas. These countries must diversify rapidly in order to improve their economies, citizens’ welfare and political stability.
• Solar is "the new king of global power markets". It is now one of the cheapest forms of energy and enjoys widespread state support. Of all new energy plants installed this year globally, 50% were solar.
• Fossil fuels are in rapid decline. For coal this decline is terminal, but oil and gas will remain for longer. The emissions produced from this residual fossil fuel usage needs to be offset by carbon-capture and storage.
• China is the world’s largest emitter and if it doesn’t meet its net zero targets, then the rest of the world doing so will be ineffective. China’s emissions have already rebound past what they were in 2019.
• The most important thing an individual can do to exert influence on the problem is to vote for the right government.
• Hydrogen is preferred by all governments, above and beyond other technologies.
• It is unfair to hold African countries to the same standards as European countries, since Africa’s cumulative share in historical global emissions is less than 2%. Such countries need support to transition to renewables.

By Bridget Stuart