Event summary by Shobhan Dhir
Covid-19 has sparked the most severe economic crisis since the Great Depression, and has dramatically altered our way of life for the foreseeable future. Given the pressure governments are under to keep people safe and recover the economy, what will be the implications of this crisis on climate policy going forward? How will future climate negotiations be impacted? And what are the most effective climate policies which are viable in this new political climate, and could any actually facilitate economic recovery?
Professor Jim Skea is the Co-chair of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), leading their work on climate change mitigation. The IPCC is the world's highest authority on climate change science - advising governments on all scientific information related to climate change, its impacts, and its mitigation so they can develop effective climate policy. Jim Skea is also Professor of Sustainable Energy at Imperial College London's Centre for Environmental Policy, and he was a founding member of the UK's Committee on Climate Change.
Kevin Anderson is Professor of Energy and Climate Change, holding a joint chair at Manchester and Uppsala University. He was also the director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. He has contributed to the development of Paris-compliant carbon budgets for Sweden, and his analysis contributed to the framing of the UK’s Climate Change Act and the development of national carbon budgets.
Jim opened by saying how most of us are interested in how Covid will affect the climate agenda, but that policymakers are interested in the reverse – how will climate action support a response to Covid-19, especially the economic recovery as we come out of lockdown? He explains that policymakers are looking for three key things from actions in a recovery:
Jim then explained that there are a host of climate actions which fit these criteria, such as retrofitting homes to be more energy efficient, tree planting and restoration, and rearranging urban landscapes to encourage more active travel, such as cycling. However, he noted that many of the worst hit sectors are the most carbon-intensive, such as airlines and car manufacturers, and that these industries will also be queuing at the doors of government to make their case for support. Therefore, cases for a green recovery need to be made very effectively. He identified five key priorities:
Kevin’s presentation focused on how Covid-19 demonstrates the inequalities which exist in our society, and the ways the system ought to change in the aftermath, where recovery from Covid-19 should be seen as an opportunity for change. He drew on the ideas of Robert Tressel, understanding key workers as the ‘Ragged Philanthropists’ of the modern day. Originally these ‘ragged philanthropists’ referred to those whose toil, struggles, and often mortal sacrifices working in the factories, built the modern world. Now, Kevin argued that the term could be used to speak about today’s Covid-19 key workers who give up their time, health and often their life, to save the high emitters of today.
One of the most stark facts from Kevin’s presentation was that 50% of all CO2 emissions are caused by the richest 10% of the world’s population. If regulations forced the top 10% of global emitters to reduce their carbon footprint to that of the average EU citizen (hardly too onerous a demand) - and the other 90% of the population made no change, we would reduce global emissions by a third. The pledges submitted under the Paris agreement are projected to result in almost no emissions reduction by 2030, demonstrating how resistant our societies are to changing the lifestyle of the high emitters and how committed to maintaining the status quo. Kevin said this needs to change: labour and resources spent furnishing the lifestyle of the high emitters must be used elsewhere, and these high consumers must change their lifestyles. Kevin concluded by saying we need new narratives on:
The feasibility and risk of carbon capture and storage (CCS) being used by policymakers as an excuse to avoid early action was addressed, with Jim explaining we need to throw everything at the problem. He said he doesn’t see how we can get to Net Zero without removing something from the atmosphere, as some sources of emissions are very difficult to eliminate. Kevin, however, warned of the significantly higher lifecycle emissions from CCS at power stations, with these being many times higher than that of renewables or nuclear, demonstrating that this technology is still far too high in emissions to be compliant with the Paris Agreement. However, for cement, CCS could be very effective. He said direct capture is preferable, but that CCS is a long way off. He also said we should address mitigation policies on the assumption that CCS won’t work, due the high uncertainty involved with the technology at large scale, and the number of feedbacks in the climate system. He also identified the fact that every pound spent on CCS is an opportunity cost elsewhere.
On the topic of stimulus policies, both agreed regulations are very effective and should be pushed. Jim provided the example policy of ‘no gas going into homes after 2023/24’, a tool that can really shift the system to electrify. He also added that with oil prices so low, it is a great time to add a carbon price without consumer resistance. Kevin had a much greater preference for regulation rather than prices, because prices don’t give as definite an outcome. He spoke of setting maximum CO2 emissions limits for fossil fuel companies and car manufacturers, which are reduced each year, letting the companies identify the best way to achieve this. Both agreed that all policies need to be screened for social equity.
On the question of what people can do whilst waiting for leaders to act, Jim said flying less and eating less meat are the two biggest things we can do to reduce our carbon footprint. Kevin said we should not wait for leadership, but must see ourselves as part of the process of leadership. We should all take an active role discussing with friends, families, and colleagues; and engaging at the local and national level or on social media, adding our ideas and thoughts to the debate. He added that the leadership of the last 30 years has collectively failed, as we have not succeeded in mitigating climate change, and are not on track, so we need input and leadership from young people on how to make change.
On how to impact high consumers without affecting ‘Tressel’s workers’, Kevin said frequent flier levies with geometric pricing would work, producing a situation where ticket prices rapidly increase with the number of tickets purchased. Also, standards such as limitations on the size of homes could work. Jim said we need to be careful about unintended consequences, for example people with multiple passports taking advantage of flying levies. Finally both emphasised the critical importance of taking a risk-based approach in assessing climate change solutions and policies, rather than a cost-benefit analysis, which fails for large scale issues with complex variables. Jim said the IPCC have been firm that cost-benefit analyses does not help with climate change policy.
To hear a more in depth exploration of the impacts of Covid-19 on Climate Policy and for many more fascinating discussions and questions, head to our YouTube channel for the event video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGxOxiCFJ3A&t=4926s
By Laura Watson
As Europe begins to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, and potentially lean towards a green recovery, the immediate and longer term impacts of a warming world must be considered. While we learned in a recent blog post about the interaction between climate change and disease, climate change also poses a range of other health threats for a large part of the global population. Most of the information presented below comes from a recent review of climate change and mental health.
Physical implications of warming temperatures
Warmer temperatures can have many physiological impacts. It is thought that the optimum temperature for humans is around 22oC, while exposure to higher temperatures can directly impact biochemical levels in the body. For example, differing levels of heat change the amounts of key neurotransmitters, serotonin and dopamine found in the body. High temperatures can also disrupt human temperature regulation mechanisms.
Mental implications of warming temperatures
Beyond the physical impacts, warming temperatures can also affect mental health at differing rates and times, causing a variety of impacts. Heat stress, for instance, is typically brought about by heat waves, and is associated with anxiety and mood disorders.
In warmer temperatures, people experience higher levels of discomfort, which leads to an increase in aggressiveness and hostile behaviour. Empirical evidence shows that hotter cities experience higher levels of violence than cooler cities, a phenomenon which is likely compounded further by the urban heat island effect.
However, a caveat must be issued along with these findings, because heat stress and the implications of higher temperatures can be influenced by a wide range of cultural, social, political, and behavioural factors. Another factor which adds to the complexity of investigating the relationship of temperature and mental health is the wide variation in levels of exposure to high temperatures between groups across the world, making it more difficult to assess the relationship between the two.
Expansion of areas and people experiencing high temperatures
The decade between 2010-19 experienced exceptionally high temperatures, and the month of May, 2020 was one of the warmest and sunniest on record. As of June 2019, Europe had experienced 5 500-year summers over the course of 15 years (meaning record breaking temperatures were experienced during those years). For a continent not expecting to experience such high temperatures, the implications were devastating. The 2003 heat wave was the most deadly, with 70,000 deaths attributed to the extremely high summer temperatures. Since then, medical services have become more prepared, but high temperatures continue to be dangerous, especially in areas less prepared for them.
This is compounded by the urban heat island effect, wherein urban areas are much warmer than their rural surroundings. This is caused by the energy produced by so many people concentrated in a relatively small area, as well as the way urban infrastructure tends to trap heat. People in cities frequently experience higher temperatures than forecasts predict, and night-time temperatures in cities often don’t fall as much as they would be expected to. The urban heat island effect intensifies the impact of increasing heat waves on cities with climate change.
Tropical economies (before COVID-19) were growing 20% faster than the rest of the world. This means that more people will be living in areas experiencing high temperatures, at the same time as the temperatures in these regions are rising. Rural to urban migration means that there will be an increased number of people exposed to high temperatures and heat stress.
Overall, it seems that climate change has impacts beyond the atmospheric and oceanic systems, and can affect mental and physical health in ways we are only just starting to discover.
Event summary by Olivia Oldham
Flying has become a staple of the modern world, though mostly for the global North. The carbon emissions of aviation are hotly debated, but it is generally agreed that it is responsible for around 3% of global emissions. So why do we care so much about flying? First of all, it is significantly--around 100 times, in fact--more carbon intensive than car travel. It also creates transport inequality--while exact statistics are hard to come by, it is unlikely that more than a couple of percent of the world’s population actually flies each year; and for those who do fly regularly, flying is their highest carbon activity.
Aviation is one of the highest emission sectors, and it is also one of the fastest growing. Now, however, due to the pandemic, the aviation sector is in crisis. How can we continue to fly while also mitigating climate change? How will Covid-19 affect our attitude towards flying into the future? We invited two experts, Michael Gill and Adam Klauber, to come speak with us to find some answers to these questions.
Michael Gill, the Director, Aviation Environment of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), spoke first. In his work at IATA, Michael leads work on sustainable regulation and policy advocacy with governments, the UN, and business partners. He is also the Executive Director of the Air Transport Action Group, leading their work to promote the aviation industry's sustainable growth. He has almost 20 years of experience in the aviation sector and he played a leadership role in the adoption of the international agreement on aviation and climate change (CORSIA) in 2016.
The long-term crisis of climate change means we need to take a long-term strategic approach to climate impact. In response to the acknowledgment in 2008 that the aviation industry was collectively responsible for a growing percentage of global emissions, airlines came together to decide a number of climate goals:
The overriding message Michael wanted to convey was that the aviation industry has recognised for over a decade that it has a significant impact on climate change and has a proactive and ambitious approach to addressing it by setting out targets that it will meet and having a very clear strategic plan involving collaboration across the sector--not just airlines but also manufacturers, airports and air traffic management. What is needed now is greater buy-in from governments through policy support, greater investment in alternative fuels, and a better understanding within the general and flying public of what the aviation industry is doing to address its impact.
Adam Klauber spoke next. He is the Principal, Sustainability and Energy at the Cadmus Group, an environmental consultancy firm. He also leads the sustainable aviation team for the Rocky Mountain institute (RMI), leading their global initiative to decarbonise aviation. He also writes for Forbes on aviation and the environment and was also the previous Head of Sustainable Aviation for ICF International. While at ICF Adam served as a representative to the UN's International Civil Aviation Organisation's Carbon Working Group
The Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) is a global contributor to climate action. It was founded over 35 years ago and has focused on market-based solutions to climate change since its inception. One challenge it has focused on is how to unlock additional capital to support the sustainable aviation fuel price gap. Alternative fuels are very expensive, and airlines operate on low margins in a highly competitive environment, which makes it difficult for them to be able to spend funds on more expensive, more sustainable fuels. This creates a problem for investment, because investors are not usually willing to provide capital for a project unless they believe there will be market uptake.
To this end, RMI was involved in 2019 in the set-up of Clean Skies for Tomorrow (CST): a group of leaders in the aviation industry and the ‘demand sector’ (which includes large corporate buyers of passenger and air-freight travel). Work conducted by this group has determined that it may be possible for alternative fuels to replace all the liquid fuels used by the aviation industry.
CST is also working with climate NGOs so that the corporations involved can be recognised as global leaders who are adopting best practices. Offsets are currently seen as a method of last resort--it is much more desirable to achieve carbon reduction goals from within the sector itself. Sustainable fuels can achieve this, whereas offsets can’t. As such, CST is seeking to achieve recognition of sustainable fuels as a viable option to meet emission reduction tools.
Currently, the most competitive alternative fuel is twice the price of kerosene (traditional airline fuel), even after government subsidies have been applied. However, CST and RMI are working on a Sustainable Aviation Fuel Credit scheme to help reduce this difference, which Adam was confident will be successful. Importantly, work on this scheme is still moving forward despite the economic challenges brought to the aviation industry by the pandemic.
If you want to learn more about this issue and hear the answers to some of the questions posed, then tune into the video, up on our YouTube channel now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBMbo0h1VXs
OCS Media Team
The latest in climate science and policy from the OCS team.