What you need to know about...Glasgow COP26

By Bridget Stuart

What you need to know about COP26
 
Despite being the longest-ever running in history, COP25 was far from a success (more in OCS blog article). However, 2020 promises to be a crucial year for climate negotiations and action on a global scale. Glasgow is hosting the 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) on the 9th - 20th of November, with Italy hosting the preparatory events.
 
The location is significant; Glasgow is one of the UK’s most sustainable cities and Scotland was one of the first countries to formally recognise the global climate emergency. Scotland has pledged to be net zero by 2045. The UK itself has committed to net zero by 2050 and has succeeded in reducing emissions by 45% since 1990 while growing the economy by 75%. This sets a leading example for the other G7 countries.
 
The COP26 conference is a chance for the UK to strengthen its position as a global climate leader, in order to further encourage greater climate ambitions and mitigation goals.
 
Key Aims of COP26

• The first application of the 5-year ‘ratchet mechanism’ agreed in the 2015 Paris Agreement. This which requires all nations to upgrade their carbon emission reduction pledges. China, India, South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam are all planning on increasing their commitments. The necessary pressure must be maintained in order for them to actually honour the Paris Agreement.
• For nations to review and update their post-2020 Nationally Determined Contributions.
• Attempt to get more countries to make official 2050 net zero pledges with concrete timescales and implementation strategies.
• Put pressure on China as the largest emitter to achieve the objectives laid out for reducing its own emissions and to clarify its actions for completing its 2020-2025 ‘5-year plan’. 
• Finalise the $100 billion a year funding, which the high-income countries in the Paris Agreement proposed to pay to low-income countries to help ‘green’ their economies and prepare for the effects of climate change.
• Hopefully create new coalitions for promoting clean economic growth, nature-based solutions, fossil fuel divestment and subsequent re-investment in clean energy.

 
Key Issues for COP26

• The USA is formally withdrawing from the Paris Agreement on 1st June 2020. Ouch.
• The USPresidential Election takes place less than a week before the start of COP26, which will determine if the USA goes into the conference with a President who acknowledges climate change, or one who continues to impede America’s contributions to global climate leadership. Sadly, regardless of the outcome, the US will only be in a position to show  a ‘shadow’ commitment.
• Brexit! Research by the University of Sheffield has predicted Brexit will weaken the climate change ambitions of both the UK and the EU. A no-deal Brexit means the UK would be free to weaken its own climate regulations. Given Boris has aligned himself with Trump, there is a growing sense of impending doom that his government might just push climate change off the top of the political agenda. On the other hand, the UK has so far been an important regulatory barrier to the climate science denying governments in Central and Eastern Europe. In a post-Brexit EU, the UK will no longer have such influence.

 
Climate science has clearly stated all global nations need to reach net zero by 2050 to have any chance of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. If there are insufficient greenhouse gas emissions reductions between 2020-2025 (next 5-year ratchet), then it may be too late to meet the 1.5 target. This emphasises the critical importance of COP26: It is clear that COP26 will be remembered as either a momentous success or an unfortunate failure for the UK as a political entity and as part of our planet.
 
Other important events for the diary:
21-24 Jan: World Economic Forum (Davos-Klosters, Switzerland)
1-11 Jun: UNFCCC Intersessional (Bonn, Germany)
10-12 Jun: G7 Summit (Camp David, USA)
22-27 Jun: Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (Kigali, Rwanda)
Date TBC: BRICS Summit (Russia)
Date TBC: EU/China Summit, under German EU presidency (Leipzig, Germany)
15-30 Sep: UN General Assembly/ Climate Week (New York, USA)
Date TBC: Pre-COP26 events (Italy)
15-28 Oct: UN Biodiversity Conference (Kunming, China)
21-22 Nov: G20 Summit (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia)
3 Nov: US presidential election